Elm Springs, AR
Elm Springs, AR's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Elm Springs at the 80th national percentile for risk to structures, in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally — a score built from 1,418 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Elm Springs at the 82nd percentile, close to its 80th-percentile risk score.
Elm Springs's building exposure, zone by zone
1,418 buildings are counted in Elm Springs, and 91% of them sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone — flame contact, not just ember cast, is the live possibility for most of them, against 5.8% rated Minimal.
Where Elm Springs ranks
Elm Springs's risk sits at a similar level relative to Arkansas (81st percentile statewide) as it does nationally (80th) — this place isn't unusual for its own state either way. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Elm Springs ranks 6,262 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 9,547 by building count (1 is largest). Within Arkansas alone, it ranks 116 of 614 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Arkansas on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
At the 80th percentile nationally, Elm Springs carries the very high rating that has pushed some carriers to limit new business in similarly-scored places elsewhere in the country. Worth comparing quotes rather than assuming last year's renewal terms still apply.
Hardening a home in Elm Springs
Because Direct exposure dominates in Elm Springs (91%), the highest-leverage fix is defensible space, not roofing or vents alone — covered in the home-hardening guide.
Where Elm Springs's figures come from
Elm Springs's 80th-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what Elm Springs's dominant direct exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.