Elephant Head, AZ
How exposed is Elephant Head to wildfire?
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Elephant Head at the 92nd national percentile for risk to structures, in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally — a score built from 528 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Elephant Head at the 92nd percentile, close to its 92nd-percentile risk score.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
528 buildings are counted in Elephant Head, and 100% of them sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone — flame contact, not just ember cast, is the live possibility for most of them, against 0% rated Minimal.
Elephant Head against the rest of the country
Elephant Head's 92nd national percentile looks worse in isolation than its 68th ranking inside Arizona does — this place is on the milder end for its own state, by 24 points. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Elephant Head ranks 2,444 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 16,888 by building count (1 is largest). Within Arizona alone, it ranks 140 of 441 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Arizona on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
Elephant Head's very high rating (92nd percentile) puts it among the places where the national carrier-pullback trend is most relevant — not a guarantee of a coverage problem, but a reason to shop rather than assume.
What would actually reduce this score
With 100% of Elephant Head in Direct exposure, defensible-space clearing and ember-resistant construction (vents, Class-A roofing) address the exposure this page's own numbers describe, not a generic checklist. See the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
Elephant Head's 92nd-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. For more on what direct exposure implies beyond Elephant Head, see the exposure-zones guide.