Elephant Butte, NM
How exposed is Elephant Butte to wildfire?
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Elephant Butte at the 54th national percentile for risk to structures, modestly above the national average for wildfire risk — a score built from 2,061 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Elephant Butte at the 53rd percentile, close to its 54th-percentile risk score.
Elephant Butte's building exposure, zone by zone
2,061 buildings are counted in Elephant Butte, and 92.7% of them are Indirect exposure — ember-driven risk rather than the 7.3% in Direct exposure or the 0% rated Minimal.
Where Elephant Butte ranks
Elephant Butte's 54th national percentile looks worse in isolation than its 22nd ranking inside New Mexico does — this place is on the milder end for its own state, by 33 points. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Elephant Butte ranks 14,379 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 7,311 by building count (1 is largest). Within New Mexico alone, it ranks 389 of 495 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for New Mexico on its state page.
Elephant Butte and the insurance market
Elephant Butte's elevated wildfire rating (54th percentile) isn't the kind of score driving the carrier pullback making news in the highest-risk Western markets — but a standard homeowners quote is still worth comparing on its own terms.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
With ember exposure the dominant pattern in Elephant Butte (92.7% Indirect), vent screens and roofing material tend to matter more than lot clearing alone. The home-hardening guide covers both.
Where Elephant Butte's figures come from
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 2,061 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Elephant Butte. The exposure-zones guide covers what Elephant Butte's dominant indirect exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.