Duncan, AZ
How exposed is Duncan to wildfire?
Duncan's 560 buildings earn a 48th-percentile wildfire-risk score nationally under USFS's model — modestly above the national average for wildfire risk. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks Duncan at the 47th national percentile — 1 points below its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
Where Duncan's buildings actually sit
Most of Duncan's buildings (82.1%) sit in the Indirect zone, where wind-blown embers rather than flame front are the mechanism USFS is scoring — ember-resistant vents and non-combustible roofing are the interventions this pattern favors, more than defensible space alone.
Duncan against the rest of the country
Duncan's 48th national percentile looks worse in isolation than its 16th ranking inside Arizona does — this place is on the milder end for its own state, by 32 points. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Duncan ranks 16,379 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 16,401 by building count (1 is largest). Within Arizona alone, it ranks 370 of 441 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Arizona on its state page.
Duncan and the insurance market
Duncan's elevated wildfire rating (48th percentile) isn't the kind of score driving the carrier pullback making news in the highest-risk Western markets — but a standard homeowners quote is still worth comparing on its own terms.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
With ember exposure the dominant pattern in Duncan (82.1% Indirect), vent screens and roofing material tend to matter more than lot clearing alone. The home-hardening guide covers both.
More on how this number was built
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 560 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Duncan. For more on what indirect exposure implies beyond Duncan, see the exposure-zones guide.