Dublin, CA
Dublin, CA's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
Dublin sits at the 94th percentile nationally for wildfire risk to structures — in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally — per USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model, built from its 16,038 counted buildings, not vegetation cover alone. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Dublin at the 95th percentile, close to its 94th-percentile risk score.
Where Dublin's buildings actually sit
USFS puts 56.9% of Dublin's 16,038 buildings in the Indirect exposure zone, versus 8.5% Direct and 34.6% Minimal — a place where the fire doesn't need to reach the structure directly for embers to. At 16,038 buildings, this is a substantial built environment, so the shares below describe a real population of structures, not a handful of edge cases.
Dublin against the rest of the country
Dublin ranks lower within California (70th percentile statewide) than its 94th national percentile suggests alone — a calmer spot in a state where wildfire risk generally runs high. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Dublin ranks 1,977 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 913 by building count (1 is largest). Within California alone, it ranks 466 of 1,570 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for California on its state page.
Shopping for coverage in Dublin
Dublin sits in California, one of two states that legally require a wildfire-risk disclosure at sale. California's FAIR Plan, the state's insurer of last resort, ended 2025 with 668,609 residential policies after adding 21,859 in Q4 alone — the kind of market shift a 94th-percentile score like Dublin's can end up mattering for. More on the disclosure law.
What would actually reduce this score
Dublin's 56.9% Indirect-exposure share points at embers, not flame contact, as the main pathway — ember-resistant vents and non-combustible roofing rank ahead of defensible space here. Detail in the home-hardening guide.
Where Dublin's figures come from
Every one of the two percentiles behind Dublin's 1,977-place national rank traces to USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities dataset — see the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what Dublin's dominant indirect exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.