Confluence, PA
Confluence, PA's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
USFS scores Confluence at the 48th national percentile for wildfire risk to structures (modestly above the national average for wildfire risk), a figure built from 555 real buildings rather than raw vegetation cover. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Confluence at the 47th percentile, close to its 48th-percentile risk score.
Where Confluence's buildings actually sit
Most of Confluence's buildings (70.3%) sit in the Indirect zone, where wind-blown embers rather than flame front are the mechanism USFS is scoring — ember-resistant vents and non-combustible roofing are the interventions this pattern favors, more than defensible space alone.
How Confluence compares
Confluence's 78th-percentile standing inside Pennsylvania outpaces its 48th national percentile — this is a hotter spot than most of its own state, even though the state as a whole runs cooler nationally. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Confluence ranks 16,336 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 16,505 by building count (1 is largest). Within Pennsylvania alone, it ranks 429 of 1,991 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Pennsylvania on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
At the 48th national percentile, Confluence rates elevated for wildfire risk — well short of the threshold where insurers have been withdrawing coverage, though comparing a quote costs nothing either way.
Hardening a home in Confluence
Confluence's 70.3% Indirect-exposure share points at embers, not flame contact, as the main pathway — ember-resistant vents and non-combustible roofing rank ahead of defensible space here. Detail in the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
Confluence's 48th-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. For more on what indirect exposure implies beyond Confluence, see the exposure-zones guide.