Ceres, CA
Ceres, CA's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Ceres at the 83rd national percentile for risk to structures, in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally — a score built from 14,446 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Ceres at the 84th percentile, close to its 83rd-percentile risk score.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
Ceres rates 97.2% Minimal exposure against just 2.9% Direct and 0% Indirect — of 14,446 buildings counted, few sit close enough to burnable vegetation for USFS to flag them individually. At 14,446 buildings, this is a substantial built environment, so the shares below describe a real population of structures, not a handful of edge cases.
Ceres against the rest of the country
Ceres ranks lower within California (45th percentile statewide) than its 83rd national percentile suggests alone — a calmer spot in a state where wildfire risk generally runs high. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Ceres ranks 5,347 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 1,037 by building count (1 is largest). Within California alone, it ranks 864 of 1,570 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for California on its state page.
Shopping for coverage in Ceres
Ceres's 83rd-percentile score lands in California, the only two states requiring a wildfire disclosure at sale. California's surplus-lines homeowners market passed 300,000 policies for the first time in 2025, driven by carriers pulling back from wildfire-exposed areas statewide. The disclosure-law guide covers what it requires.
Hardening a home in Ceres
Even with 97.2% of Ceres outside USFS's Direct and Indirect zones, basic hardening — gutter maintenance, ember-resistant vents — is inexpensive relative to the regional burn-probability risk noted above. Details in the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
Every one of the two percentiles behind Ceres's 5,347-place national rank traces to USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities dataset — see the methodology guide. For more on what minimal exposure implies beyond Ceres, see the exposure-zones guide.