Carmel Valley Village, CA
Carmel Valley Village, CA's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
Carmel Valley Village sits at the 97th percentile nationally for wildfire risk to structures — in USFS's highest wildfire-risk band nationally — per USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model, built from its 2,749 counted buildings, not vegetation cover alone. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, Carmel Valley Village's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 97th percentile nationally.
Carmel Valley Village's building exposure, zone by zone
84.8% of Carmel Valley Village's 2,749 buildings sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone, roughly 2,331 structures close enough to burnable vegetation for flame contact, not just embers — 15.2% fall in the Indirect, ember-only zone and 0% are Minimal.
How Carmel Valley Village compares
Inside California, Carmel Valley Village sits at just the 80th percentile even though it scores 97th nationally — the state's overall wildfire exposure is high enough to make this a relatively quiet corner of it. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Carmel Valley Village ranks 905 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 5,850 by building count (1 is largest). Within California alone, it ranks 318 of 1,570 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for California on its state page.
Carmel Valley Village and the insurance market
Carmel Valley Village's 97th-percentile score lands in California, the only two states requiring a wildfire disclosure at sale. California's surplus-lines homeowners market passed 300,000 policies for the first time in 2025, driven by carriers pulling back from wildfire-exposed areas statewide. The disclosure-law guide covers what it requires.
Hardening a home in Carmel Valley Village
Because Direct exposure dominates in Carmel Valley Village (84.8%), the highest-leverage fix is defensible space, not roofing or vents alone — covered in the home-hardening guide.
Where Carmel Valley Village's figures come from
Every one of the two percentiles behind Carmel Valley Village's 905-place national rank traces to USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities dataset — see the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what Carmel Valley Village's dominant direct exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.