Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA
How exposed is Carmel-by-the-Sea to wildfire?
Out of every US place USFS scores, Carmel-by-the-Sea lands at the 69th percentile for wildfire risk to structures — well above the national norm for wildfire risk — a figure built from its 3,500 buildings, not the land around them. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks Carmel-by-the-Sea at the 70th national percentile — 1 points above its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
3,500 buildings are counted in Carmel-by-the-Sea, and 55.7% of them are Indirect exposure — ember-driven risk rather than the 32.1% in Direct exposure or the 12.2% rated Minimal.
Carmel-by-the-Sea against the rest of the country
Carmel-by-the-Sea's 69th national percentile looks worse in isolation than its 27th ranking inside California does — this place is on the milder end for its own state, by 43 points. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Carmel-by-the-Sea ranks 9,729 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 4,773 by building count (1 is largest). Within California alone, it ranks 1,151 of 1,570 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for California on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
Because Carmel-by-the-Sea is in California, a wildfire-hazard disclosure is legally required before a sale closes here — unusual nationally, since only these two states mandate it. The state's FAIR Plan alone carried 668,609 policies by the end of 2025. Full detail in the disclosure-law guide.
What would actually reduce this score
Carmel-by-the-Sea's 55.7% Indirect-exposure share points at embers, not flame contact, as the main pathway — ember-resistant vents and non-combustible roofing rank ahead of defensible space here. Detail in the home-hardening guide.
Where Carmel-by-the-Sea's figures come from
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 3,500 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Carmel-by-the-Sea. The exposure-zones guide covers what Carmel-by-the-Sea's dominant indirect exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.