Carlisle, AR
Carlisle, AR's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Carlisle at the 29th national percentile for risk to structures, close to the middle of USFS's national wildfire-risk range — a score built from 1,202 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, Carlisle's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 30th percentile nationally.
Carlisle's building exposure, zone by zone
USFS puts 76.2% of Carlisle's 1,202 buildings in the Indirect exposure zone, versus 18.8% Direct and 5% Minimal — a place where the fire doesn't need to reach the structure directly for embers to.
Carlisle against the rest of the country
There's little gap between Carlisle's 29th national percentile and its 14th percentile inside Arkansas, which means the state comparison mostly confirms what the national score already shows. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Carlisle ranks 22,396 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 10,636 by building count (1 is largest). Within Arkansas alone, it ranks 528 of 614 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Arkansas on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
Carlisle's moderate wildfire rating (29th percentile) isn't the kind of score driving the carrier pullback making news in the highest-risk Western markets — but a standard homeowners quote is still worth comparing on its own terms.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
Carlisle's 76.2% Indirect-exposure share points at embers, not flame contact, as the main pathway — ember-resistant vents and non-combustible roofing rank ahead of defensible space here. Detail in the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
Every one of the two percentiles behind Carlisle's 22,396-place national rank traces to USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities dataset — see the methodology guide. For more on what indirect exposure implies beyond Carlisle, see the exposure-zones guide.