Caldwell, AR
Caldwell, AR's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
Out of every US place USFS scores, Caldwell lands at the 51st percentile for wildfire risk to structures — modestly above the national average for wildfire risk — a figure built from its 294 buildings, not the land around them. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks Caldwell at the 53rd national percentile — 2 points above its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
Caldwell's building exposure, zone by zone
USFS classifies 84% of Caldwell's buildings as Direct exposure, higher than its 16% Indirect share and far above its 0% Minimal share — a profile where 247 structures sit close enough to vegetation that lot clearing matters most.
How Caldwell compares
Caldwell's 51st national percentile looks worse in isolation than its 26th ranking inside Arkansas does — this place is on the milder end for its own state, by 24 points. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Caldwell ranks 15,526 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 21,778 by building count (1 is largest). Within Arkansas alone, it ranks 453 of 614 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Arkansas on its state page.
Caldwell and the insurance market
Caldwell's elevated wildfire rating (51st percentile) isn't the kind of score driving the carrier pullback making news in the highest-risk Western markets — but a standard homeowners quote is still worth comparing on its own terms.
What would actually reduce this score
Caldwell's 84% Direct-exposure share means lot clearing around the structure typically outweighs any single material upgrade here. The home-hardening guide ranks the options for a place shaped like this.
Where Caldwell's figures come from
Caldwell's 51st-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what Caldwell's dominant direct exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.