Cairnbrook, PA
Cairnbrook wildfire risk explained
Cairnbrook's 364 buildings earn a 46th-percentile wildfire-risk score nationally under USFS's model — modestly above the national average for wildfire risk. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, Cairnbrook's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 46th percentile nationally.
Cairnbrook's building exposure, zone by zone
57.4% of Cairnbrook's 364 buildings fall in USFS's Indirect exposure zone — ember cast rather than direct flame — against 42.6% Direct and 0% Minimal. Vent screens and roofing material matter more here than lot clearing alone.
How Cairnbrook compares
Compare Cairnbrook's two percentiles: 75th within Pennsylvania, only 46th nationally — a gap of 28 points that marks it as unusually exposed for its own state. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Cairnbrook ranks 16,905 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 19,988 by building count (1 is largest). Within Pennsylvania alone, it ranks 504 of 1,991 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Pennsylvania on its state page.
Cairnbrook and the insurance market
At the 46th national percentile, Cairnbrook rates elevated for wildfire risk — well short of the threshold where insurers have been withdrawing coverage, though comparing a quote costs nothing either way.
What would actually reduce this score
Cairnbrook's 57.4% Indirect-exposure share points at embers, not flame contact, as the main pathway — ember-resistant vents and non-combustible roofing rank ahead of defensible space here. Detail in the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 364 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Cairnbrook. For more on what indirect exposure implies beyond Cairnbrook, see the exposure-zones guide.