Bull Run Mountain Estates, VA
How exposed is Bull Run Mountain Estates to wildfire?
Out of every US place USFS scores, Bull Run Mountain Estates lands at the 39th percentile for wildfire risk to structures — close to the middle of USFS's national wildfire-risk range — a figure built from its 478 buildings, not the land around them. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks Bull Run Mountain Estates at the 36th national percentile — 3 points below its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
Bull Run Mountain Estates's building exposure, zone by zone
478 buildings are counted in Bull Run Mountain Estates, and 100% of them sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone — flame contact, not just ember cast, is the live possibility for most of them, against 0% rated Minimal.
Where Bull Run Mountain Estates ranks
Bull Run Mountain Estates's risk sits at a similar level relative to Virginia (31st percentile statewide) as it does nationally (39th) — this place isn't unusual for its own state either way. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Bull Run Mountain Estates ranks 19,271 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 17,755 by building count (1 is largest). Within Virginia alone, it ranks 472 of 681 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Virginia on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
Bull Run Mountain Estates's moderate rating (39th percentile nationally) sits outside the range where wildfire risk alone reshapes an insurance market — still, a homeowner here loses nothing by comparing rates.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
Because Direct exposure dominates in Bull Run Mountain Estates (100%), the highest-leverage fix is defensible space, not roofing or vents alone — covered in the home-hardening guide.
Where Bull Run Mountain Estates's figures come from
Bull Run Mountain Estates's 39th-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. The exposure-zones guide covers what Bull Run Mountain Estates's dominant direct exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.