Bull Creek, MO
How exposed is Bull Creek to wildfire?
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Bull Creek at the 69th national percentile for risk to structures, well above the national norm for wildfire risk — a score built from 100 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Bull Creek at the 71st percentile, close to its 69th-percentile risk score.
Where Bull Creek's buildings actually sit
100 buildings are counted in Bull Creek, and 88% of them are Indirect exposure — ember-driven risk rather than the 12% in Direct exposure or the 0% rated Minimal.
Where Bull Creek ranks
Bull Creek's risk sits at a similar level relative to Missouri (81st percentile statewide) as it does nationally (69th) — this place isn't unusual for its own state either way. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Bull Creek ranks 9,674 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 29,037 by building count (1 is largest). Within Missouri alone, it ranks 207 of 1,062 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Missouri on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
Bull Creek's high rating (69th percentile) puts it among the places where the national carrier-pullback trend is most relevant — not a guarantee of a coverage problem, but a reason to shop rather than assume.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
Bull Creek's 88% Indirect-exposure share points at embers, not flame contact, as the main pathway — ember-resistant vents and non-combustible roofing rank ahead of defensible space here. Detail in the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
Bull Creek's 69th-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. For more on what indirect exposure implies beyond Bull Creek, see the exposure-zones guide.