Bear Creek Ranch, TX
How exposed is Bear Creek Ranch to wildfire?
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Bear Creek Ranch at the 68th national percentile for risk to structures, well above the national norm for wildfire risk — a score built from 605 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Bear Creek Ranch at the 68th percentile, close to its 68th-percentile risk score.
Where Bear Creek Ranch's buildings actually sit
80.7% of Bear Creek Ranch's 605 buildings fall in USFS's Indirect exposure zone — ember cast rather than direct flame — against 19.3% Direct and 0% Minimal. Vent screens and roofing material matter more here than lot clearing alone.
How Bear Creek Ranch compares
Bear Creek Ranch ranks lower within Texas (26th percentile statewide) than its 68th national percentile suggests alone — a calmer spot in a state where wildfire risk generally runs high. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Bear Creek Ranch ranks 10,068 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 15,775 by building count (1 is largest). Within Texas alone, it ranks 1,318 of 1,795 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Texas on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
Bear Creek Ranch's high rating (68th percentile) puts it among the places where the national carrier-pullback trend is most relevant — not a guarantee of a coverage problem, but a reason to shop rather than assume.
What would actually reduce this score
Bear Creek Ranch's 80.7% Indirect-exposure share points at embers, not flame contact, as the main pathway — ember-resistant vents and non-combustible roofing rank ahead of defensible space here. Detail in the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
Bear Creek Ranch's 68th-percentile score and its burn-probability figure both come from the same USFS workbook, documented in the methodology guide. For more on what indirect exposure implies beyond Bear Creek Ranch, see the exposure-zones guide.