Ayr, NE
Ayr, NE's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Ayr at the 18th national percentile for risk to structures, among the lower wildfire-risk places nationally — a score built from 99 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks Ayr at the 14th national percentile — 4 points below its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
78.8% of Ayr's 99 buildings sit in USFS's Minimal exposure zone, with only 21.2% rated Direct — risk here comes from regional burn probability more than proximity to burnable vegetation at the structure itself.
Where Ayr ranks
Ayr scores 18th nationally and 9th within Nebraska — close enough that its state context doesn't change the picture the national number already gives. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Ayr ranks 25,777 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 29,093 by building count (1 is largest). Within Nebraska alone, it ranks 533 of 583 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Nebraska on its state page.
Ayr and the insurance market
Ayr's low wildfire rating (18th percentile) isn't the kind of score driving the carrier pullback making news in the highest-risk Western markets — but a standard homeowners quote is still worth comparing on its own terms.
What would actually reduce this score
Even with 78.8% of Ayr outside USFS's Direct and Indirect zones, basic hardening — gutter maintenance, ember-resistant vents — is inexpensive relative to the regional burn-probability risk noted above. Details in the home-hardening guide.
Where Ayr's figures come from
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 99 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Ayr. The exposure-zones guide covers what Ayr's dominant minimal exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.