Avra Valley, AZ
Avra Valley, AZ's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
USFS scores Avra Valley at the 80th national percentile for wildfire risk to structures (well above the national norm for wildfire risk), a figure built from 3,690 real buildings rather than raw vegetation cover. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Avra Valley at the 79th percentile, close to its 80th-percentile risk score.
Avra Valley's building exposure, zone by zone
3,690 buildings are counted in Avra Valley, and 98.7% of them sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone — flame contact, not just ember cast, is the live possibility for most of them, against 0.1% rated Minimal.
Where Avra Valley ranks
Avra Valley ranks lower within Arizona (44th percentile statewide) than its 80th national percentile suggests alone — a calmer spot in a state where wildfire risk generally runs high. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Avra Valley ranks 6,387 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 4,540 by building count (1 is largest). Within Arizona alone, it ranks 249 of 441 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Arizona on its state page.
Avra Valley and the insurance market
Avra Valley's high rating (80th percentile) puts it among the places where the national carrier-pullback trend is most relevant — not a guarantee of a coverage problem, but a reason to shop rather than assume.
What would actually reduce this score
Because Direct exposure dominates in Avra Valley (98.7%), the highest-leverage fix is defensible space, not roofing or vents alone — covered in the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 3,690 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Avra Valley. For more on what direct exposure implies beyond Avra Valley, see the exposure-zones guide.