WildfireRiskFinder

Austin, TX

Austin, TX's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers

High
74thpercentile nationally

USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Austin at the 74th national percentile for risk to structures, well above the national norm for wildfire risk — a score built from 266,376 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)

Separately from the risk score above, Austin's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 72nd percentile nationally.

Where Austin's buildings actually sit

266,376Total buildings
17.6%Direct exposure
22.8%Indirect exposure
59.5%Minimal exposure

Most of Austin's buildings (59.5% of 266,376) fall outside USFS's Direct and Indirect zones entirely — that doesn't zero out the score above, it means the risk is regional, not structure-by-structure. At 266,376 buildings, this is a substantial built environment, so the shares below describe a real population of structures, not a handful of edge cases.

Austin against the rest of the country

Austin ranks lower within Texas (43rd percentile statewide) than its 74th national percentile suggests alone — a calmer spot in a state where wildfire risk generally runs high. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Austin ranks 8,266 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 15 by building count (1 is largest). Within Texas alone, it ranks 1,033 of 1,795 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Texas on its state page.

Austin and the insurance market

Austin's high rating (74th percentile) puts it among the places where the national carrier-pullback trend is most relevant — not a guarantee of a coverage problem, but a reason to shop rather than assume.

What would actually reduce this score

Even with 59.5% of Austin outside USFS's Direct and Indirect zones, basic hardening — gutter maintenance, ember-resistant vents — is inexpensive relative to the regional burn-probability risk noted above. Details in the home-hardening guide.

Where Austin's figures come from

The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 266,376 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Austin. The exposure-zones guide covers what Austin's dominant minimal exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.