Aurora, MN
Aurora wildfire risk explained
Aurora's 1,311 buildings earn a 46th-percentile wildfire-risk score nationally under USFS's model — modestly above the national average for wildfire risk. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks Aurora at the 44th national percentile — 2 points below its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
1,311 buildings are counted in Aurora, and 72.2% of them are Indirect exposure — ember-driven risk rather than the 27.8% in Direct exposure or the 0% rated Minimal.
Where Aurora ranks
Compare Aurora's two percentiles: 69th within Minnesota, only 46th nationally — a gap of 22 points that marks it as unusually exposed for its own state. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Aurora ranks 16,931 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 10,018 by building count (1 is largest). Within Minnesota alone, it ranks 287 of 914 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Minnesota on its state page.
Aurora and the insurance market
At the 46th national percentile, Aurora rates elevated for wildfire risk — well short of the threshold where insurers have been withdrawing coverage, though comparing a quote costs nothing either way.
What would actually reduce this score
Aurora's 72.2% Indirect-exposure share points at embers, not flame contact, as the main pathway — ember-resistant vents and non-combustible roofing rank ahead of defensible space here. Detail in the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
Every one of the two percentiles behind Aurora's 16,931-place national rank traces to USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities dataset — see the methodology guide. For more on what indirect exposure implies beyond Aurora, see the exposure-zones guide.