Ash Flat, AR
Ash Flat, AR's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
Ash Flat's 654 buildings earn a 78th-percentile wildfire-risk score nationally under USFS's model — well above the national norm for wildfire risk. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
USFS's separate burn-probability score — fire likelihood alone, before counting what's built there — puts Ash Flat at the 81st percentile, close to its 78th-percentile risk score.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
654 buildings are counted in Ash Flat, and 85.3% of them sit in USFS's Direct exposure zone — flame contact, not just ember cast, is the live possibility for most of them, against 0% rated Minimal.
How Ash Flat compares
Ash Flat's risk sits at a similar level relative to Arkansas (74th percentile statewide) as it does nationally (78th) — this place isn't unusual for its own state either way. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Ash Flat ranks 6,863 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 15,144 by building count (1 is largest). Within Arkansas alone, it ranks 158 of 614 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Arkansas on its state page.
Ash Flat and the insurance market
Ash Flat's 78th-percentile, high rating is the kind of score behind a broader national pattern: insurers pulling back from the highest wildfire-risk markets, non-renewing or declining new policies outright, most visibly in California. Shopping around, not assuming automatic renewal, tends to matter here.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
Because Direct exposure dominates in Ash Flat (85.3%), the highest-leverage fix is defensible space, not roofing or vents alone — covered in the home-hardening guide.
More on how this number was built
Every one of the two percentiles behind Ash Flat's 6,863-place national rank traces to USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities dataset — see the methodology guide. For more on what direct exposure implies beyond Ash Flat, see the exposure-zones guide.