Apple Valley, MN
Apple Valley wildfire risk explained
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Apple Valley at the 33rd national percentile for risk to structures, close to the middle of USFS's national wildfire-risk range — a score built from 14,933 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Fire likelihood alone (USFS's burn-probability figure) ranks Apple Valley at the 35th national percentile — 2 points above its risk-to-structures score, a gap driven by how much is actually built there.
What "at risk" means for the buildings here
82.9% of Apple Valley's 14,933 buildings sit in USFS's Minimal exposure zone, with only 12.6% rated Direct — risk here comes from regional burn probability more than proximity to burnable vegetation at the structure itself. At 14,933 buildings, this is a substantial built environment, so the shares below describe a real population of structures, not a handful of edge cases.
Apple Valley against the rest of the country
Apple Valley scores 33rd nationally and 42nd within Minnesota — close enough that its state context doesn't change the picture the national number already gives. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Apple Valley ranks 20,987 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 997 by building count (1 is largest). Within Minnesota alone, it ranks 534 of 914 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Minnesota on its state page.
Apple Valley and the insurance market
Apple Valley's moderate wildfire rating (33rd percentile) isn't the kind of score driving the carrier pullback making news in the highest-risk Western markets — but a standard homeowners quote is still worth comparing on its own terms.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
With 82.9% of buildings rated Minimal exposure, Apple Valley gets less benefit from structure hardening than a Direct- or Indirect-dominant place would — the home-hardening guide explains why the zone matters.
Where Apple Valley's figures come from
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 14,933 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Apple Valley. The exposure-zones guide covers what Apple Valley's dominant minimal exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.