Afton, MN
Afton, MN's wildfire risk, in USFS's own numbers
USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities model puts Afton at the 42nd national percentile for risk to structures, modestly above the national average for wildfire risk — a score built from 2,067 actual buildings. (Source: USFS's Wildfire Risk to Communities methodology.)
Separately from the risk score above, Afton's burn probability — fire likelihood with no building count factored in — sits at the 43rd percentile nationally.
Where Afton's buildings actually sit
Of Afton's 2,067 counted buildings, 90.9% carry Direct exposure and only 1% carry Minimal — a lopsided split that puts defensible-space clearing ahead of vents or roofing as the intervention worth doing first.
Afton against the rest of the country
Afton's 58th-percentile standing inside Minnesota outpaces its 42nd national percentile — this is a hotter spot than most of its own state, even though the state as a whole runs cooler nationally. Among the 31,521 US communities USFS scores, Afton ranks 18,340 for wildfire risk (1 is highest) and 7,293 by building count (1 is largest). Within Minnesota alone, it ranks 385 of 914 places by risk. See the full county-by-county picture for Minnesota on its state page.
What this risk score means for insurance
At the 42nd national percentile, Afton rates elevated for wildfire risk — well short of the threshold where insurers have been withdrawing coverage, though comparing a quote costs nothing either way.
Lowering exposure, not just insuring around it
Because Direct exposure dominates in Afton (90.9%), the highest-leverage fix is defensible space, not roofing or vents alone — covered in the home-hardening guide.
Where Afton's figures come from
The methodology guide shows exactly how USFS turned 2,067 counted buildings into the percentiles shown above for Afton. The exposure-zones guide covers what Afton's dominant direct exposure actually means, with real examples from across the dataset.